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我们提供的宏观经济学Macroeconomics及其相关学科的代写,服务范围广, 其中包括但不限于:

  • Statistical Inference 统计推断
  • Statistical Computing 统计计算
  • Advanced Probability Theory 高等概率论
  • Advanced Mathematical Statistics 高等数理统计学
  • (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
  • Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
  • Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
  • Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Cartels and Market Power

The examination of the economic role of cartels provides another illustration of the type of class antagonism that Kalecki put at the center of his analysis. When he developed his theory, the dynamics of market structure was central in Marxist debates. ${ }^{19}$ Kalecki took an original view on this question and argued that the presence of monopolies made it possible to rationalize production and fluidify the supply of certain markets. But in accordance with his theory of profits, he also emphasized that this did not fundamentally modify the evolution of investment dynamics and the course of the cycle. ${ }^{20}$ In his view, cartels were neither a factor accentuating or attenuating contradictions even if they could be responsible for a greater magnitude in the movement of employment: if the adjustments are made by price and quantity, as they are in “free” competition, the fluctuations in employment will be less accentuated than when adjustments are made only by quantity, which is the case when cartels can keep prices constant. But cartelization does not alter the period or the damping of the cycle, but only its amplitude. It is also not responsible for the general trend of the economy: it can only explain the cycle. Politically, on the other hand, cartels have a considerable role insofar as they can guide economic, diplomatic and military policy. It is only in this indirect way that they can influence the level of employment in the economy. ${ }^{21}$

For Kalecki, the government alone has the ability to give control over the cycle to the workers, who have an interest to guide public intervention in their favor. It is therefore around state interventions that antagonisms crystallize. ${ }^{22}$ In the series of papers published in the socialist review that he founded with Lange, Kalecki sought to give a lively description of those antagonisms in geopolitical issues such as the rise of fascism, the militarization of Europe, the trade wars between conglomerates or the fights around commodities. These examples underscore the essentially political character of Kalecki’s critique of “economic imperialism”: cartelization is not in itself seen as an economic obstacle. On the other hand, the actions of large groups block the possibilities of recovery “from the top” and favor the development of military conflicts.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Putting the Ingredients Together

Kalecki modeled a simplified closed world with two classes of people: capitalists and workers. Workers are assumed to consume the entirety of their wages, while capitalists consume only the part of their profits that is not invested. In reference to his work presented above, this distinction means that the total income of capitalists is globally equal to their expenses and the more they spend as a class in consumption and investment, the more profits they earn. ${ }^{27}$

This paints a grim picture of an asymmetric world in which capitalists’ decisions rule the ups and downs of the business cycle, while workers have no other choice than to adapt to the resulting conditions. But this is only true for capitalists as a class, and not individually: at their level, they can only hope when they increase their expenses that other capitalists will do as well. The difficulty is increased by the fact that the current yield of investments depends on the stock of capital, which is itself a function of past investment decisions that are delivered only after a production period. Capitalists must then anticipate the future level of investment, and its impact on the future stock of capital which determines the yield of current investment projects (remembering also to incorporate a factor of depreciation and the evolving rate of interest). This is the main source of economic instability for Kalecki, and the driver of the ups and downs of the economy. ${ }^{28}$

To model this instability, Kalecki started from a situation with a constant stock of capital where profits are equal to the sum of the consumption of capitalists $C$ and the level of production $A: P=C+A$. Capitalists’ consumption consists of a constant amount $C_0$ and a part proportionate to profits; i.e., $C=C_0+\lambda P$ where $\lambda$ is the capitalists’ marginal propensity to consume. Substituting this consumption equation into the profit equation allows Kalecki to obtain the level of realized profits $P=$ $\frac{A+C_0}{1-\lambda}$ which corresponds to a state of “quasi-equilibrium,” that is, the equilibrium level of profit for any given level of investment spending and autonomous capitalist consumption. As will become clear, Kalecki was much more interested in the stability properties of his whole system, where this quasi-equilibrium remained obtained at each time, than in the adjustment process to this equilibrium. ${ }^{29}$ The dynamic process that he studied was the trajectory of this equilibrium point when the capital stock was allowed to vary.



经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Cartels and Market Power

对卡特尔的经济作用的考察提供了卡莱茨基置于其分析中心的阶级对抗类型的另一个例证。当他发展他的理论时,市场结构的动态是马克思主义辩论的核心。19Kalecki 对这个问题提出了独到的看法,他认为垄断的存在使得生产合理化和某些市场的供应流动化成为可能。但根据他的利润理论,他也强调,这并没有从根本上改变投资动态的演变和周期的进程。20在他看来,卡特尔既不是加剧矛盾也不是减弱矛盾的因素,即使它们可能对更大范围的就业流动负责:如果调整是按价格和数量进行的,就像它们在“自由”竞争中一样,波动与仅按数量进行调整相比,就业方面的影响不会那么突出,后者是卡特尔可以保持价格不变的情况。但卡特尔化不会改变周期或周期的阻尼,而只会改变其幅度。它也不负责经济的总体趋势:它只能解释周期。另一方面,在政治上,卡特尔在指导经济、外交和军事政策方面发挥着重要作用。只有通过这种间接方式,它们才能影响经济中的就业水平。21

对于 Kalecki 而言,仅政府就有能力将周期控制权交给工人,他们有兴趣引导公共干预以利于他们。因此,正是围绕着国家干预,敌对情绪得以具体化。22在他与兰格共同创立的社会主义评论中发表的一系列论文中,卡莱茨基试图生动地描述地缘政治问题上的对抗,例如法西斯主义的兴起、欧洲的军事化、企业集团之间的贸易战或周边地区的斗争。商品。这些例子强调了 Kalecki 对“经济帝国主义”的批判本质上的政治特征:卡特尔化本身并不被视为经济障碍。另一方面,大集团的行动阻碍了“自上而下”复苏的可能性,有利于军事冲突的发展。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Putting the Ingredients Together

Kalecki 模拟了一个简化的封闭世界,其中有两类人:资本家和工人。假设工人消费了他们的全部工资,而资本家只消费了他们未投资的那部分利润。参考他上面介绍的工作,这种区别意味着资本家的总收入在全球范围内等于他们的支出,他们作为一个阶层在消费和投资上花费的越多,他们赚取的利润就越多。27


为了模拟这种不稳定性,Kalecki 从资本存量不变的情况开始,利润等于资本家消费的总和C和生产水平一种:P=C+一种. 资本家的消费包括一个不变的数量C0与利润成比例的部分;IE,C=C0+升P在哪里升是资本家的边际消费倾向。将这个消费方程代入利润方程可以让 Kalecki 获得已实现利润的水平P= 一种+C01−升这对应于“准均衡”状态,即任何给定水平的投资支出和自主资本主义消费的均衡利润水平。将会变得很清楚,Kalecki 对他的整个系统的稳定性特性更感兴趣,在这个系统中每次都保持这种准平衡,而不是对这种平衡的调整过程。29他研究的动态过程就是允许资本存量变动时这个均衡点的轨迹。

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术语 广义线性模型(GLM)通常是指给定连续和/或分类预测因素的连续响应变量的常规线性回归模型。它包括多元线性回归,以及方差分析和方差分析(仅含固定效应)。



有限元是一种通用的数值方法,用于解决两个或三个空间变量的偏微分方程(即一些边界值问题)。为了解决一个问题,有限元将一个大系统细分为更小、更简单的部分,称为有限元。这是通过在空间维度上的特定空间离散化来实现的,它是通过构建对象的网格来实现的:用于求解的数值域,它有有限数量的点。边界值问题的有限元方法表述最终导致一个代数方程组。该方法在域上对未知函数进行逼近。[1] 然后将模拟这些有限元的简单方程组合成一个更大的方程系统,以模拟整个问题。然后,有限元通过变化微积分使相关的误差函数最小化来逼近一个解决方案。





随机过程,是依赖于参数的一组随机变量的全体,参数通常是时间。 随机变量是随机现象的数量表现,其时间序列是一组按照时间发生先后顺序进行排列的数据点序列。通常一组时间序列的时间间隔为一恒定值(如1秒,5分钟,12小时,7天,1年),因此时间序列可以作为离散时间数据进行分析处理。研究时间序列数据的意义在于现实中,往往需要研究某个事物其随时间发展变化的规律。这就需要通过研究该事物过去发展的历史记录,以得到其自身发展的规律。


多元回归分析渐进(Multiple Regression Analysis Asymptotics)属于计量经济学领域,主要是一种数学上的统计分析方法,可以分析复杂情况下各影响因素的数学关系,在自然科学、社会和经济学等多个领域内应用广泛。


MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中,其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括:数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发,包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统,其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题,尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题,而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问,这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展,得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中,它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域,MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要,工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数(M 文件)的综合集合,可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

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