经济代写|国际经济学代写International Economics代考|ECON6302

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Doug I. Jones

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  • Statistical Inference 统计推断
  • Statistical Computing 统计计算
  • Advanced Probability Theory 高等概率论
  • Advanced Mathematical Statistics 高等数理统计学
  • (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
  • Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
  • Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
  • Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础
经济代写|国际经济学代写International Economics代考|ECON6302

经济代写|国际经济学代写International Economics代考|FACTOR PRICES AT THE POST-TRADE EQUILIBRIUM

Post-trade, there are some significant changes in the properties of the HOS model that deserve attention. The most important change compared to the situation under autarchy is that now the prices of the traded commodities are no longer determined in the local economy but in the world market in the way spelled out in Chapter 4 . Thus, prices $P_C$ and $P_T$ are now exogenous to the equation system (6.3)-(6.11). The local market equilibrium condition (6.11) is also no longer relevant because local demand and supply need not and should not match when trade opens up, as long as both computers and textiles can be traded. Thus local supplies and hence aggregate employment are no longer constrained by local demand.

There are two important implications of commodity prices being determined from ‘outside’ and exogenously given to the equation system. First, is that local demand and supply conditions affect commodity and factor prices only indirectly, if at all. Consider, for example, an exogenous change in consumers’ taste away from textiles in the home country. This will increase both the excess supply of textiles and the excess demand for computers. The home country’s offer of exports of textiles and import demand for computers thus rise. If the home country trades only an infinitesimally small proportion of the world trade volume, these increases will only have a very negligible effect on world demand. Hence, there will be no change in the relative price of its traded goods or the TOT that it faces. The home country in this case, being an insignificant buyer and seller, is a price taker in the world market. Like a perfectly competitive firm, it cannot influence world prices by changing its own trade volumes however large the change may be. That is, the demand conditions are irrelevant for a small is a large or significant buyer and seller in the world market, changes in the taste pattern and consequent change in its volume of trade will affect its TOT. TOT will deteriorate, that is, the relative price of its exports will fall in the world market in this instance. Such a price change will then affect factor prices. Thus, for a large home country changes in local demand conditions only indirectly affect commodity prices and factor prices in local markets. These cases contrast with the pre-trade situation where changes in local demand conditions affect prices directly. It is in this sense that the HOS model is a supply side model in the post-trade situation.
The second implication is the irrelevance of factor endowment and changes thereof for local factor prices in the home country. Referring back to the supply side equation system (6.3)-(6.7), it is immediate that once the traded commodity prices are determined in the world market, the price sub-system comprising of equations (6.3)-(6.5) are dichotomized from the physical sub-system comprising of equations (6.6)-(6.7). What this means is that factor prices, wage rate and the rate of return to capital, are determined solely by commodity prices, regardless of factor market conditions. Once again the factor endowment conditions matter only indirectly.

经济代写|国际经济学代写International Economics代考|A Fixed Coefficient HOS Model

An alternative to the production technology that allows for a menu of techniques of production as indicated by the smooth isoquants shown in Figure $6.1$ is the Leontief production technology. Such a technology allows for only one production technique (for each good) and is known as the fixed-coefficient production technology. Thus, the $a_{i j} \mathrm{~s}$ are no longer a choice variable as specified in equation (6.5), but are exogenously given. Changes in factor prices brought about by changes in commodity prices no longer affect the production technique in the two sectors. As a result, full employment of both factors of production cannot be maintained at all feasible commodity prices.

The core propositions, however, remain unchanged. For example, the output magnification effect will be precisely the same because it presumes constant commodity prices, which essentially fix factor prices and hence techniques of production. So it does not really matter whether production technology allows for only one or more than one technique of production. Moreover, this output magnification effect relates the supply bias of a country with its endowment bias, and accordingly the HO theorem remains valid. On the other hand, since the one-to-one correspondence depends on something else rather than a flexible coefficient production technology, the FPE theorem holds as well as long as these other conditions are satisfied as spelled out above.

The only change with a fixed coefficient production technology will be the shape of PPF and correspondingly the shape of the relative supply curve. Of course, as mentioned earlier, full employment of both labour and capital will not necessarily be characterizing the pre-trade equilibrium as well. To see this, consider Figure A6.1 where the full employment constraints are drawn. With a fixed coefficient production technology, these constraints will not change their positions when commodity prices and consequently factor prices change. PPF is generated by the lower envelope $K P L^{\prime}$ of these two constraints. This is because to the left of point $P$ the capital constraint is binding whereas to the right the labour constraint is binding. For any relative price of textiles that equals $\frac{a_{L T}}{a_{L C}}$, the economy can produce any combination of the two goods along the $P L^{\prime}$ segment. Thus, except for the bundle $P$ and the complete specialization bundle $L^{\prime}$, only labour will be fully employed and capital will be in excess supply.

经济代写|国际经济学代写International Economics代考|ECON6302


经济代写|国际经济学代写International Economics代考|考虑到贸易后均衡的价格

交易后,HOS模型的属性有一些显着变化值得关注。与专制下的情况相比,最重要的变化是,现在交易商品的价格不再由当地经济决定,而是由世界市场决定,如第 4 章所述。因此,价格磷C和磷吨现在是方程系统 (6.3)-(6.11) 的外生。本地市场均衡条件(6.11)也不再相关,因为只要计算机和纺织品都可以交易,本地需求和供应不必也不应该在贸易开放时匹配。因此,当地供应和总就业不再受到当地需求的限制。

商品价格由“外部”决定和外生地赋予方程系统有两个重要含义。首先,当地的供需条件如果有影响的话,只是间接地影响商品和要素价格。例如,考虑一下消费者对本国纺织品的品味的外生变化。这将增加纺织品的过剩供应和计算机的过剩需求。本国对纺织品出口的报价和对计算机的进口需求因此上升。如果母国的贸易量仅占世界贸易量的极小部分,那么这些增长对世界需求的影响将微乎其微。因此,其交易商品的相对价格或面临的 TOT 不会发生变化。在这种情况下,本国,作为一个微不足道的买家和卖家,是世界市场上的价格接受者。就像一个完全竞争的公司一样,它不能通过改变自己的贸易量来影响世界价格,无论变化有多大。也就是说,需求条件与世界市场上的大或重要的买家和卖家无关,口味模式的变化以及随之而来的交易量变化将影响其TOT。TOT 将恶化,即在这种情况下,其出口产品在世界市场上的相对价格将下降。这种价格变化将影响要素价格。因此,对于一个大国来说,当地需求条件的变化只会间接影响当地市场的商品价格和要素价格。这些情况与当地需求状况的变化直接影响价格的交易前情况形成对比。

经济代写|国际经济学代写International Economics代考|一个固定系数的住房保险模型

一种生产技术的替代方案,它允许一个生产技术菜单,如图中所示的平滑等量线所示6.1是Leontief的生产技术。这种技术只允许一种生产技术(对于每种商品),被称为固定系数生产技术。就这样一个一世j s不再是等式(6.5)中指定的选择变量,而是外生给定的。商品价格变化带来的要素价格变化不再影响这两个部门的生产技术。结果,在所有可行的商品价格下,两种生产要素的充分利用都无法维持。

然而,核心命题保持不变。例如,输出放大效应将完全相同,因为它假定商品价格不变,这基本上固定了要素价格,从而固定了生产技术。因此,生产技术是否只允许一种或多种生产技术并不重要。此外,这种产出放大效应将一个国家的供给偏差与其禀赋偏差联系起来,因此 HO 定理仍然有效。另一方面,由于一一对应依赖于其他东西而不是灵活的系数产生技术,所以只要满足上述其他条件,FPE 定理就成立。

固定系数生产技术的唯一变化将是 PPF 的形状以及相应的相对供给曲线的形状。当然,如前所述,劳动力和资本的充分就业不一定是贸易前均衡的特征。要了解这一点,请考虑图 A6.1,其中绘制了充分就业约束。使用固定系数的生产技术,当商品价格和要素价格发生变化时,这些约束不会改变它们的位置。PPF由下包络产生ķ磷大号′这两个约束。这是因为在点的左边磷资本约束具有约束力,而在右边,劳动力约束具有约束力。对于任何等于的纺织品相对价格一个大号吨一个大号C, 经济可以生产两种商品的任意组合磷大号′部分。因此,除了捆绑磷和完整的专业化捆绑包大号′,只有劳动力会得到充分利用,资本才会供过于求。

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术语 广义线性模型(GLM)通常是指给定连续和/或分类预测因素的连续响应变量的常规线性回归模型。它包括多元线性回归,以及方差分析和方差分析(仅含固定效应)。



有限元是一种通用的数值方法,用于解决两个或三个空间变量的偏微分方程(即一些边界值问题)。为了解决一个问题,有限元将一个大系统细分为更小、更简单的部分,称为有限元。这是通过在空间维度上的特定空间离散化来实现的,它是通过构建对象的网格来实现的:用于求解的数值域,它有有限数量的点。边界值问题的有限元方法表述最终导致一个代数方程组。该方法在域上对未知函数进行逼近。[1] 然后将模拟这些有限元的简单方程组合成一个更大的方程系统,以模拟整个问题。然后,有限元通过变化微积分使相关的误差函数最小化来逼近一个解决方案。





随机过程,是依赖于参数的一组随机变量的全体,参数通常是时间。 随机变量是随机现象的数量表现,其时间序列是一组按照时间发生先后顺序进行排列的数据点序列。通常一组时间序列的时间间隔为一恒定值(如1秒,5分钟,12小时,7天,1年),因此时间序列可以作为离散时间数据进行分析处理。研究时间序列数据的意义在于现实中,往往需要研究某个事物其随时间发展变化的规律。这就需要通过研究该事物过去发展的历史记录,以得到其自身发展的规律。


多元回归分析渐进(Multiple Regression Analysis Asymptotics)属于计量经济学领域,主要是一种数学上的统计分析方法,可以分析复杂情况下各影响因素的数学关系,在自然科学、社会和经济学等多个领域内应用广泛。


MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中,其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括:数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发,包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统,其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题,尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题,而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问,这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展,得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中,它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域,MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要,工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数(M 文件)的综合集合,可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。


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