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宏观经济学,对国家或地区经济整体行为的研究。它关注的是了解整个经济的事件,如商品和服务的生产总量、失业水平和价格的一般行为。
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我们提供的宏观经济学Macroeconomics及其相关学科的代写,服务范围广, 其中包括但不限于:
- Statistical Inference 统计推断
- Statistical Computing 统计计算
- Advanced Probability Theory 高等概率论
- Advanced Mathematical Statistics 高等数理统计学
- (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
- Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
- Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
- Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Asset bubbles
We’ve discussed how price inflation can break out in the overall economy when the demand for goods exceeds supply. However, perhaps a more dangerous problem is that of asset inflation that is not the result of an excess of overall demand, rather excess dollars being funneled into a certain category of assets. Why? Because when prices for a particular asset, such as housing or gold, are continuously bid upward based on expectations of future growth, borrowers are able to borrow more and more on that artificially inflated collateral. Whether due to a flight to the perceived safety of a certain asset category, such as bonds, or investment opportunity, such as rental real estate, sudden spikes in demand for a particular asset category can result in quickly inflating prices. The artificially created values are unsustainable in the long-term and prices are bound to correct. At a certain point, borrowers cannot support the higher loan payments and the falling collateral values are insufficient to meet bank loan to value ratios, causing banks to call many of those loans.
This is exactly what happened in the 2008 housing crisis. Of course, riskier lending products such as subprime mortgages and the use of mortgage-backed securities to fund much of the expansion of housingrelated debt compounded the problem. But at the core of the crisis was a build-up in housing values which was fueled by loose lending standards and low interest rates, allowing more and more borrowers to qualify for loans. The dream of home ownership became accessible for more people, but the quality of much of the new lending made for an unstable foundation. It wasn’t a problem while the housing market was booming, but things changed quickly when the market corrected.
What led to the fallout? When a few houses in a neighborhood may be in distress or foreclosure at any given time, it will not affect the values of all the other homes. However, when too many houses are distressed at any one time, a tipping point is reached. Market values are determined largely by comparable sale prices. So, too many foreclosures or short sales will drop the average, resulting in lower market values for all of the remaining houses in the neighborhood. This may upset the required loan to collateral ratio of lending institutions who hold mortgages on the affected homes. Suddenly, loans are under water, meaning that the amounts owed on the properties exceed the values of the underlying collateral. Under pressure by regulators, lenders begin calling those loans, accelerating payment of the entire balance, even if the payments are current, possibly pushing more homes into foreclosure. As banks’ income streams taper and balance sheet ratios become unhealthy, the systems freeze up and a widespread deflating spiral in value begins.
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Looking forward
With so many opinions and conflicting reports circulating about the economy, it is no wonder that so many people find it confusing. Traditional relationships of the money supply to some of the often-used economic indicators have become skewed in recent years, leading some to question their applicability as tools. Indeed, many who are well-versed and educated in economics often have the story wrong. In trying to make sense of it all, the experts will track the multitude of economic indicators and attempt to predict what the economy is going to do next. But things change quickly, and it is difficult to hit a moving target.
Sometimes measures undertaken do not play out as expected. At the end of the day, it all really comes down to confidence. Many economists and others believe that when citizens, including employers, fear that fiscal policy and monetary policy are not conducted in a sensible manner and are not perceived to be pro-growth for the economy, those citizens simply lose confidence in the future.
The resulting fallout can be widespread, from decreases in spending to rising unemployment. Until confidence is regained, spending will remain sluggish. Rather than hire and invest in productive activities, which would entail much risk in times of uncertainty, business owners may tighten up their spending for fear of an uncertain future. When they are seeking safer alternatives for their money than growing their businesses, they tend to invest (speculate) in financial assets (stock, bonds, etc.). Of course, as there may be more and more buyers interested in certain asset classes, those assets’ values are pushed higher and higher, giving rise to the belief that the wealthy are getting wealthier, even though it’s really just rampant speculation driving the values upward.
These build-ups in value can be very fragile and the difficulty is to predict when they are going to peak and move out of some markets. Corrections can happen gradually, but it is more likely to happen with a short period of steep decline. A little hiccup may occur, causing buyers to panic and prices will plummet drastically. The speculative build-up in value is truly fragile and could burst at a moment’s notice. That is why we use the very fitting term, asset bubble.
宏观经济学代考
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Asset bubbles
我们已经讨论了当商品需求超过供应时,价格通胀如何在整体经济中爆发。然而,也许更危险的问题是资产通胀,这不是总体需求过剩的结果,而是过剩的美元流入某一类资产。为什么?因为当特定资产(如住房或黄金)的价格基于对未来增长的预期持续上涨时,借款人能够通过人为夸大的抵押品借入越来越多的资金。无论是由于对特定资产类别(例如债券)的安全感的逃避,还是由于投资机会(例如出租房地产),对特定资产类别的需求突然激增都可能导致价格迅速上涨。人为创造的价值从长远来看是不可持续的,价格必然会纠正。在某个时刻,借款人无法支持更高的贷款支付,而抵押品价值的下降不足以满足银行的贷款价值比率,导致银行收回其中的许多贷款。
这正是 2008 年住房危机中发生的情况。当然,次级抵押贷款等风险较高的贷款产品以及使用抵押贷款支持证券来为大部分住房相关债务的扩张提供资金使问题更加复杂。但危机的核心是住房价值的上涨,这是由宽松的贷款标准和低利率推动的,这使得越来越多的借款人有资格获得贷款。拥有房屋的梦想为更多人所接受,但大部分新贷款的质量却造成了不稳定的基础。房地产市场繁荣时这不是问题,但当市场调整时情况很快发生了变化。
是什么导致了后果?当附近的几所房屋在任何特定时间可能陷入困境或丧失抵押品赎回权时,它不会影响所有其他房屋的价值。但是,当太多的房子在任何时候都陷入困境时,就会达到一个临界点。市场价值主要由可比的销售价格决定。因此,过多的止赎或卖空会降低平均水平,从而导致附近所有剩余房屋的市场价值降低。这可能会扰乱持有受影响房屋抵押贷款的贷款机构所需的贷款抵押比率。突然间,贷款被淹没,这意味着所欠房产的金额超过了基础抵押品的价值。在监管机构的压力下,贷方开始收回这些贷款,加速支付全部余额,即使付款是当前的,也可能会导致更多房屋丧失抵押品赎回权。随着银行的收入流逐渐减少和资产负债表比率变得不健康,系统冻结并开始出现普遍的通货紧缩螺旋。
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Looking forward
有这么多关于经济的观点和相互矛盾的报道流传,难怪这么多人感到困惑。近年来,货币供应量与一些常用经济指标的传统关系变得扭曲,导致一些人质疑它们作为工具的适用性。确实,许多精通经济学并受过良好教育的人经常把故事搞错。为了弄清这一切,专家们将跟踪众多经济指标,并试图预测经济接下来会发生什么。但事情变化很快,很难击中移动的目标。
有时采取的措施并没有按预期发挥作用。归根结底,这一切都归结为信心。许多经济学家和其他人认为,当包括雇主在内的公民担心财政政策和货币政策没有以合理的方式实施并且被认为不利于经济增长时,这些公民只会对未来失去信心。
由此产生的后果可能是广泛的,从支出减少到失业率上升。在恢复信心之前,支出将保持低迷。与其雇佣和投资生产性活动,这在不确定时期会带来很大风险,企业主可能会因担心不确定的未来而收紧支出。当他们为自己的钱寻找比发展业务更安全的替代品时,他们倾向于投资(投机)金融资产(股票、债券等)。当然,由于可能有越来越多的买家对某些资产类别感兴趣,这些资产的价值被推得越来越高,让人相信富人越来越富有,尽管实际上只是猖獗的投机推动价值上涨.
这些价值积累可能非常脆弱,困难在于预测它们何时会见顶并退出某些市场。修正可以逐渐发生,但更可能发生在短期急剧下跌的情况下。可能会出现一点小问题,导致买家恐慌,价格将大幅下跌。价值的投机性积累确实很脆弱,可能会在瞬间破裂。这就是为什么我们使用非常贴切的术语,资产泡沫。
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金融工程代写
金融工程是使用数学技术来解决金融问题。金融工程使用计算机科学、统计学、经济学和应用数学领域的工具和知识来解决当前的金融问题,以及设计新的和创新的金融产品。
非参数统计代写
非参数统计指的是一种统计方法,其中不假设数据来自于由少数参数决定的规定模型;这种模型的例子包括正态分布模型和线性回归模型。
广义线性模型代考
广义线性模型(GLM)归属统计学领域,是一种应用灵活的线性回归模型。该模型允许因变量的偏差分布有除了正态分布之外的其它分布。
术语 广义线性模型(GLM)通常是指给定连续和/或分类预测因素的连续响应变量的常规线性回归模型。它包括多元线性回归,以及方差分析和方差分析(仅含固定效应)。
有限元方法代写
有限元方法(FEM)是一种流行的方法,用于数值解决工程和数学建模中出现的微分方程。典型的问题领域包括结构分析、传热、流体流动、质量运输和电磁势等传统领域。
有限元是一种通用的数值方法,用于解决两个或三个空间变量的偏微分方程(即一些边界值问题)。为了解决一个问题,有限元将一个大系统细分为更小、更简单的部分,称为有限元。这是通过在空间维度上的特定空间离散化来实现的,它是通过构建对象的网格来实现的:用于求解的数值域,它有有限数量的点。边界值问题的有限元方法表述最终导致一个代数方程组。该方法在域上对未知函数进行逼近。[1] 然后将模拟这些有限元的简单方程组合成一个更大的方程系统,以模拟整个问题。然后,有限元通过变化微积分使相关的误差函数最小化来逼近一个解决方案。
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随机分析代写
随机微积分是数学的一个分支,对随机过程进行操作。它允许为随机过程的积分定义一个关于随机过程的一致的积分理论。这个领域是由日本数学家伊藤清在第二次世界大战期间创建并开始的。
时间序列分析代写
随机过程,是依赖于参数的一组随机变量的全体,参数通常是时间。 随机变量是随机现象的数量表现,其时间序列是一组按照时间发生先后顺序进行排列的数据点序列。通常一组时间序列的时间间隔为一恒定值(如1秒,5分钟,12小时,7天,1年),因此时间序列可以作为离散时间数据进行分析处理。研究时间序列数据的意义在于现实中,往往需要研究某个事物其随时间发展变化的规律。这就需要通过研究该事物过去发展的历史记录,以得到其自身发展的规律。
回归分析代写
多元回归分析渐进(Multiple Regression Analysis Asymptotics)属于计量经济学领域,主要是一种数学上的统计分析方法,可以分析复杂情况下各影响因素的数学关系,在自然科学、社会和经济学等多个领域内应用广泛。
MATLAB代写
MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中,其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括:数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发,包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统,其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题,尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题,而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问,这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展,得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中,它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域,MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要,工具箱允许您学习和应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数(M 文件)的综合集合,可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。