# 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON5002

#### Doug I. Jones

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• Statistical Inference 统计推断
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• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
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## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Benchmarks and targets

We have all heard that too much money creates inflation. The well-known saying, “There are too many dollars chasing too few goods,” which implies that inflation is a function of the money supply, is simple, but relatively correct. The word inflation generally has a negative connotation, even inciting fear for some, especially if they lived through the 1970 s. At the same time, we are led to believe that some inflation is good. It can be confusing. So how are we to know what the right amount of inflation is? Historically, it has turned out to be true that $2 \%-3 \%$ inflation is a good thing, but more than that is unhealthy. In order to achieve this $2 \%-3 \%$ ‘sweet spot,’ central banks take the appropriate action to drive the economy in the correct direction.

We often hear that the central bank ‘sets interest rates,’ but that is not really the best description of what happens. In the United States, the Fed sets the Federal funds rate, which economists on the Federal Open Market Committee decide upon based on the environment in which the economy is operating at the current time. Commonly referred to as the Fed funds rate, this is the interest rate that lending institutions charge to borrow reserves from each other. Further, it is the benchmark rate upon which other lending is based, directly impacting other short-term interest rates as well as the prime rate, which is used by banks to build rates for longer-term borrowing.
But how does the Fed implement its target rate? It really is very simple. It uses open market operations to nudge the rate toward its target. The Fed looks at the volume of overnight lending between banks and from that it is able to get a read on the overall demand for reserves. If the reserve pool is too small, the demand from banks would push the interest rate up. If the pool is too large, rates would shift downward in response to decreased demand for borrowing. Since the central bank has an interest in maintaining a reserve pool balance that allows it to achieve its target interest rate, the Fed supplies reserves as necessary to meet the demands of the commercial banking system, which in turn pushes the Fed funds rate toward its target. Since we know that the central bank does not seek to restrict the amount of bank reserves supplied into the system, rather injecting reserves as needed to meet the aggregate demand necessary for banks to maintain the reserve requirements indicated by new deposits being created, it is clear that the Fed can use the demand in the reserve ‘market’ to control its benchmark rate.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|More on infation

Perhaps the most famous quote about inflation came from the late Milton Friedman, a much -respected economist at the University of Chicago, who stated that, “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” (from Friedman (1963), “Inflation: Causes and Consequences, Asia Publishing House”). Since inflation is understood to be a rise in the average prices of goods and services in the economy, that summation seems almost too basic. Of course, inflation is a monetary phenomenon! It is about money! But, just as different academics have argued over time as to what really causes inflation, misunderstandings persist even in our modern economy.

Friedman proposed the theory that inflation is all about the money supply. How much money is in the system? Too much money will create inflation, too little may cause deflation. As a monetarist, he believed that a restrictive money supply, too inadequate to feed the natural behavior of the economy, would cause prices to fall because too little money chasing too many goods would result in situation where supply exceeds demand. Conversely, if there is too much money in the economy, then prices will increase in response to demand which is outpacing supply.

Using the well-known Quantity Theory of Money, we can see the mathematical version of Friedman’s ideas. The quantity theory equation states that MV = PY, where M is money supply, $V$ is the velocity of money, $\mathrm{P}$ is the price level, and $Y$ is real GDP. There is some evidence that the velocity of money – which measures how often a dollar bill circulates around in our economy over a given period of time tends to be relatively stable, while real GDP is determined by factors such as capital, labor, and technology. If this is true, then from MV = PY, changes in M must filter through to changes in $\mathrm{P}$, and a change in $\mathrm{P}$ is the very definition of inflation. When presented this way, this seems quite logical. However, this is a prime example of a theory that can be best explained with a clear understanding of the way that the modern monetary system actually works.

## 有限元方法代写

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## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

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